“Shedding light on deadly flames: what drives fires in Italian forests”

We analyze the determinants of monthly and yearly variations in forest fire frequency and on the size of the area burnt (i.e., intensity) for Italian regions during 2000-2011. Panel data techniques allow capturing the dynamical aspects of fire danger due to changes in both climatic and socioeconomic conditions, after accounting for regional fixed effects to consider region-specific unobserved factors. Two different dependent variables (measuring frequency and intensity of fires) are alternatively employed and several ad hoc tests are performed to corroborate estimation outputs. Results highlight a significant regional heterogeneity across the Italian peninsula.Different regions are governed by dissimilar patterns. Weather variables significantly affect fire frequency and intensity with the expected sign and with persistent effects in time. High temperatures affect fire risk conditions more than precipitation in terms of magnitude. A seasonality path is clearer when looking at fire intensity rather than frequency with a stronger connotation as we move from north to south of Italy. As for socio-economic drivers, we find that higher levels of education negatively influence the number of fire events as well as their intensity in the north and central Italy. In the south, the presence of illegal activities significantly affects fire danger, after controlling for the regional fixed effects and climatic data.