Modelling the relationships between volume, intensity and injury-risk in professional rugby league players

Objective: This study aimed to: (a)identify the association between external-workloads and injury-risk in the subsequent week; and (b)understand the effectiveness of workload variables in establishing injury-risk. Design: Retrospective cohort study. Methods: Workload and injury data (soft-tissue)were collected from forty-eight professional male rugby league players. Load variables included duration (min), total distance (m), relative distance (m min ⁻¹ ), high speed distance ([m]>20 km h ⁻¹ ), very-high speed distance ([m]>25 km h ⁻¹ ), acceleration and deceleration efforts (count)and PlayerLoad (Arbitrary Unit: AU). Cumulative two-, three- and four-weekly loads; Acute:Chronic Workload Ratio (ACWR); Mean-Standard Deviation Workload Ratio (MSWR)and strain values were calculated and divided into three equally-sized bins (low, moderate and high). Generalised Estimating Equations analysed relationships between workload variables and injury probability in the subsequent week. Results: Injury-risk increased alongside increases in the ACWR for duration, total distance and PlayerLoad. Conversely, injury-risk decreased (Area Under Curve: 0.569–0.585)with increases in the four-weekly duration, total distance, accelerations, decelerations and PlayerLoad. For relative distance, high four-weekly workloads (high: >60 m min ⁻¹ )demonstrated a positive association with injury-risk, whilst high two-weekly loads (high: >82 m min ⁻¹ )were negatively associated. Conclusions: A range of external workload metrics and summary statistics demonstrate either positive or negative associations with injury-risk status. Such findings provide the framework for the development of decision-support systems in which external workload metrics (e.g. total or high speed distance)can be uniquely and routinely monitored across a range of summary statistics (i.e. cumulative weekly loads and ACWR)in order to optimise player performance and welfare.