Latent variable dose–response modelling of external training load measures and musculoskeletal responses in elite rugby league players

Establishing dose–response relationships between training load and fatigue can help the planning of training. The aim was to establish the relative importance of external training load measurements to relate to the musculoskeletal response on a group and individual player level. Sixteen elite male rugby league players were monitored across three seasons. Two- to seven-day exponential weighted averages (EWMA) were calculated for total distance, and individualised speed thresholds (via 30–15 Intermittent Fitness Test) derived from global positioning systems. The sit and reach, dorsiflexion lunge, and adductor squeeze tests represented the musculoskeletal response. Partial least squares and repeated measures correlation analyses established the relative importance of training load measures and then investigated their relationship to the collective musculoskeletal response for individual players through the construction of latent variables. On a group level, 2- and 3-day EWMA total distance had the highest relative importance to the collective musculoskeletal response (p < 0.0001). However, the magnitude of relationships on a group (r value = 0.20) and individual (r value = 0.06) level were trivial to small. The lack of variability in the musculoskeletal response over time suggest practitioners adopting such measures to understand acute musculoskeletal fatigue responses should do so with caution.